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Census 2021: London's booming growth brings big challenges

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London is feeling “the strain” of rapid population growth and taxpayers could face a massive cost for services if new arrivals aren’t contained to existing residential areas, a city councillor warns.

As the city and region post the hottest population growth in Ontario and one of the most torrid growth rates in the country, the city cannot allow urban sprawl or taxpayers may see a spike in costs, Coun. Jesse Helmer said.

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“It is great news that we are seeing growth that is twice the Canadian average but we are seeing the strain of that growth and we should expect it to continue,” he said.

“We can expect this to continue for the next few years.”

The city is “blowing out of the water” the growth forecast in the London Plan, the city’s blueprint for growth, and it is more important than ever the city builds “inward and upward” with higher density development on existing lands, and not into undeveloped areas, Helmer said.

“We are way ahead of where we expected to be,” with population growth, he said. “It is urgent we execute the inward and upward growth we envision.”

If the city allows more residential building in green spaces at the city’s edge, it will cost a lot more to service the new neighbourhoods, Helmer said. The city also needs to stay the course with rapid transit plans this year and consider expanding them, he said.

“By the time rapid transit is finished we could have another 40,000 people in the city,” Helmer said.

According to census data released Wednesday, London’s population grew 10 per cent between 2016 and 2021 to reach a total of 422,324. The London region’s population sits at 543,551.

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Mayor Ed Holder struck a more optimistic tone, saying the city has dealt with growth in recent years and will be able to accommodate more people moving here.

“I am confident we will have housing. We know there is urgency to this. We get it. We know what needs to be done,” he said.

The city has an aggressive capital plan for infrastructure investment including a strategy for building affordable homes. The city issued $1.6 billion in building permits last year.

“It is a challenge but we are dealing with it,” Holder said.

Michael Haan is a Western University demography professor who specializes in immigration settlement and labour integration. He said the city needs to consider how to manage such growth and its impact on services.

“This is incredible growth, particularly when you compare it to London’s historical trends,” he said.

Politicians “might want to consider that any infrastructure that’s going to be developed, whether its light rail transit or high-speed bus lines, that’s a lot easier to put in now than when the population has another 100,000 people attached to it,”Haan said.

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While population growth is a challenge for the city, for business it is a clear win, said Kapil Lakhotia, chief executive of the London Economic Development Corp.

“It adds workers, it creates demand. As people settle in, it will drive areas of the economy,” he said.

“From a business standpoint we like population growth. It adds to the talent base. We need people entering the labour force,” Lakhotia said.

Deb Mountenay, director of the employment agency Elgin, Middlesex, Oxford Workplace Planning Development Board, agreed, saying it explains why London and area has seen more people entering the labour force, and they are finding jobs.

“We knew we were seeing an increase in numbers. Our participation rate has gone up.”

The participation rate – the percentage of working-age people active in the labour force, either working or looking for work  – increased from 61 per cent in 2019 to 66 per cent in 2021.

The number of people employed in the London census metropolitan area went from 351,800 in December 2019, pre-pandemic, to 386,500 in December 2021.

“We are still seeing a lot of demand from employers,” Mountenay said.

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What They Said:

“It is exciting to see our community grow. We have seen 1,000 new students a year for the last few years. That is a huge number and we are trying to manage,” adding another school in the city’s southeast in September and looking to add several others, including in the north and southwest of the city. “It is a challenge, development happens fast and building a school takes partnership between the school board, municipality and Education Ministry.”

Geoff Vogt, superintendent of facility operations capital and planning for the Thames Valley District school board

“You look around the streets, you look at new housing starts and you look at the price of housing. Clearly there’s a new source of pressure on the city’s infrastructure.” Politicians “might want to consider that any infrastructure that’s going to be developed, whether its light rail transit or high-speed bus lines, that’s a lot easier to put in now than when the population has another 100,000 people attached to it.”

Michael Haan, a demography professor at Western University

“It will tell us who is coming to town, if it is families with children or retirees, and what services we will need, such as more swim times, skating, library services and what transit the city needs to invest in.”

Coun. Elizabeth Peloza, this year’s budget chairperson

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